National Security & Defense

The Corner

The Strengthening of Mexico’s Peso Doesn’t Bode Well for Trump

The Mexican peso’s strength has a negative correlation with Donald Trump’s presidential campaign polls. Over the weekend, the peso jumped nearly 2 percent against the dollar; analysts have attributed it to the near-implosion of Trump’s campaign after a leaked audio recording revealed the presidential candidate making lewd comments about women. And while political pundits and polls provide conflicting conclusions about who won the second presidential debate, the peso indicator illustrates that Trump’s debate performance did not fare well — the peso has continued to strengthen over the course of Monday’s market exchanges.

Trump’s threat to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement and build a wall along the U.S. southern border has cast uncertainty over U.S.-Mexico relations if he were to win in November. In a Bloomberg study, the majority of economists surveyed predicted that under a Trump presidency, the peso would weaken to approximately 21 to 23 against the dollar — today, the peso is at 18.88 against the dollar. Before Trump’s scandal this past weekend, the peso was well over 19 against the dollar, and it nearly reached 20 just two weeks ago as Trump’s poll numbers were competitive.

The strengthening of the peso indicates that investors are confident that Hillary Clinton will win in November. “Markets assume that the weekend’s events are lowering the odds of Trump winning the election,” Barclays’s global FX and rates strategist Andres Jaime said. And based on Monday’s market exchanges, Sunday night’s debate did little to alter the peso’s positive trend. Trump’s debate performance may have been well enough for supporters to believe that there is a high probability of him beating Clinton, but based on the peso indicator it seems as if the U.S.’s largest trading partner has reason to believe otherwise.

Austin Yack — Austin Yack is a William F. Buckley Fellow in Political Journalism at the National Review Institute and a University of California, Santa Barbara alumnus.

Most Popular

Film & TV

Why We Can’t Have Wakanda

SPOILERS AHEAD Black Panther is a really good movie that lives up to the hype in just about every way. Surely someone at Marvel Studios had an early doubt, reading the script and thinking: “Wait, we’re going to have hundreds of African warriors in brightly colored tribal garb, using ancient weapons, ... Read More
Law & the Courts

Obstruction Confusions

In his Lawfare critique of one of my several columns about the purported obstruction case against President Trump, Gabriel Schoenfeld loses me — as I suspect he will lose others — when he says of himself, “I do not think I am Trump-deranged.” Gabe graciously expresses fondness for me, and the feeling is ... Read More
Science & Tech

Set NASA Free

The Trump administration has proposed shifting the International Space Station from a NASA-exclusive research facility to a semi-public, semi-private one. Its plan would nix all government funding for the ISS by 2025 and award at least $150 million per year to NASA to help with the transition. This would be a ... Read More
Politics & Policy

Students’ Anti-Gun Views

Are children innocents or are they leaders? Are teenagers fully autonomous decision-makers, or are they lumps of mental clay, still being molded by unfolding brain development? The Left seems to have a particularly hard time deciding these days. Take, for example, the high-school students from Parkland, ... Read More
PC Culture

Kill Chic

We live in a society in which gratuitous violence is the trademark of video games, movies, and popular music. Kill this, shoot that in repugnant detail becomes a race to the visual and spoken bottom. We have gone from Sam Peckinpah’s realistic portrayal of violent death to a gory ritual of metal ripping ... Read More
Elections

Romney Is a Misfit for America

Mitt’s back. The former governor of Massachusetts and occasional native son of Michigan has a new persona: Mr. Utah. He’s going to bring Utah conservatism to the whole Republican party and to the country at large. Wholesome, efficient, industrious, faithful. “Utah has a lot to teach the politicians in ... Read More