On Colorado Recall-Election Eve, Early Voting Hints at Split Decision

Colorado Peak Politics gathers the latest early voting data in El Paso County, where a recall election against state senator John Morse is in progress:

12,174 total early votes

ACN (Constitution Party): 37

Democrat: 4,023 (33 percent)

Green: 39

Libertarian: 100

Republican: 4,923 (40 percent)

Unaffiliated: 3,052 (25 percent)

Here are the early voting figures in Pueblo, where state senator Angela Giron is also facing a recall election:

To date, 21,014 voters have turned out to the various polling places around town conducting early voting.

Of that total, 9,838 have been Democrats, 6,869 have been Republican, and 4,174 have been unaffiliated voters, according to the Pueblo County Clerk and Recorder’s office. Others affiliated with different parties such as Libertarians and the Green Party make up 133 of the total votes cast.

That comes out to 46 percent Democrat, 32 percent Republican, 19 percent unaffiliated.

All the traditional caveats apply — there’s no guarantee every Republican voted for the recall, or every Democrat voted against it, etc. But so far, early voting suggests a gloomy night for Morse and a good night for Giron.

If tomorrow’s results show a split decision, it will reflect, in part, the difference between a swing district and a relatively safe Democrat one. In 2010, Democrat John Morse won reelection 48.1 percent to 47.2 percent, with about 250 votes separating the two (and Libertarian Douglas Randall collected 1,258 votes). That year, Giron won more solidly, 54.8 percent to 45.1 percent, a margin of about 4,000 votes.

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