Today’s post–South Carolina Morning Jolt offers arguments for (new frontrunner?) Newt from sources I deeply respect; I even call one “Dad.” But I also point out the extraordinarily ominous indicator that most Newt fans are averting their eyes from:
Friday afternoon, the Washington Examiner’s Conn Carroll offered a data point that every Republican primary voter can and should consider.
Here are the most recent favorability results I could find for Obama, Romney, and Newt.
Fox News, 1/12-1/14: Obama, fav/unfav, 51%/46%, +5 Romney, fav/unfav, 45%/38%, +7 Gingrich, fav/unfav, 27%/56%, -29
CBS/NYT, 1/12-1/17: Obama, fav/unfav, 38%/45%, -7 Romney, fav/unfav, 21%/35%, -14 Gingrich, fav/unfav, 17%/49%, -32
PPP, 1/13-1/17: Obama, app/dis, 47%/50%, -3 Romney, fav/unfav, 35%/53%, -18 Gingrich, fav/unfav, 26%/60%, -34
America does not love Romney, but boy do they hate Newt.
Now, favorability numbers can change. Some flight between South Carolina and Florida could suddenly have all the engines fail, and Newt could race to the cockpit and successfully land the plane on the water the way Captain Sullenberger did for US Airways flight 1549. But barring some dramatic new bit of information, 2012 Republican presidential nominee Newt Gingrich would head into the general election as an extraordinarily disliked man.
Now, Newt fans can argue A) somehow between now and Election Day, the country will look at a guy, who’s been in the national spotlight on and off since 1994, and suddenly find him exponentially more likeable than they do now while the Obama campaign is running an expensive negative campaign against him or B) a majority in enough states to win 270 electoral votes will decide that in light of the state of the country, likeability doesn’t matter all that much, and that they will happily vote for the guy they feel unfavorable towards because he will do a better job as president.
Good luck with either of those scenarios. Some of those folks feeling unfavorably about Newt Gingrich may not like him because of his marital troubles, some may not like him because they bought into the Time magazine cover of him as Ebenezer Scrooge, some simply may not like him because of his appearance or some other fairly shallow reason. But I suspect those views are visceral and deeply felt, and sadly, you cannot logically argue a person out of a position that they did not logically argue themselves into.
On Election Night, Gingrich repeated his pledge that, if nominated, he would propose seven three-hour Lincoln-Douglas-style debates with President Obama. If Gingrich and Obama were to debate, I could easily envision Gingrich tearing apart Obama’s tissue-thin record, bringing up a dozen Obama missteps that the incumbent and MSM would prefer to ignore, and the president retreating into ever vaguer platitudes and generalities. And I could also see those same debates ending with Obama leading by an even wider margin because so many non-Republican voters found Gingrich smug, hectoring, condescending, snide, and disrespectful. Style matters, and you don’t go into an election with the electorate you wished you had, you go into an election with the electorate you have.
With Newt as the nominee, the Republican message to swing voters is, “Vote for the guy you detest to replace the president who you still like but who has disappointed you.” That’s not an impossible sales pitch, but it is an extraordinarily difficult one.
Like I said, ominous. You can almost hear the music-box tune in the distance.