The Colorado secretary of state announced today that 332,050 Coloradans have cast ballots already, and out of that total, 145,824 are registered Republicans, and 105,401 are registered Democrats. That translates to a 43.9 percent to 31.7 percent advantage for the GOP.
In 2012, as Barack Obama was winning the state 51 percent to 46 percent, Republicans led the 1.7 million mail ballots cast in 2012 by 37 percent to 35 percent. So Republicans should be expected to lead, but a 12-point lead is better news than a 2-point lead.
In Florida, the news is also good for Republicans, but the figures could change quickly: 559,133 registered Republicans have voted early or absentee, 421,425 registered Democrats, and 198,423 independent or other. That translates to a 47 percent to 36 percent advantage. The Miami Herald summarizes:
History aside, the advantage is with Gov. Rick Scott right now for a simple reason: More of his people are voting. And the fact is, Democrats pride themselves on doing well in early voting. And they’re losing it at the moment. The big test comes Saturday and Sunday, the first full weekend for early voting, when Democrats tend to flock to the polls.
In Iowa, the GOP and Democrats are nearly tied in the number of returned absentee ballots — a mere 170-vote difference in favor of registered Democrats, with 238,147 ballots returned.
If Democrats want good cheer, they can point to Louisiana, where 20,760 of the first 38,620 ballots were cast by registered Democrats, and only 12,883 by Republicans. But this partially reflects the heavy partisan divide in the state’s registration; Louisiana has an electorate consisting of 47.1 percent registered Democrats and 27.5 percent registered Republicans, while having a GOP governor, one GOP U.S. senator and one Democratic one, and five Republican members out of six in the state’s congressional delegation.
Also note that those 38,000 ballots represent a small fraction of the expected total vote; back in 2010, with a less competitive U.S. Senate race, more than 1.2 million ballots were cast.