Everyone is using Mayor Nagin’s 10,000 number for the likely death toll. I certainly have no reason to think it might be higher or lower, though we all hope for lower. But I’m wondering why his number is the only one out there. And, where did Nagin get that number from in the first place?
I recall that when Giuliani was asked what he thought the death toll would be after 9/11 he said “more than we can bear” or something close to that. It was hailed as a brilliant and noble way to duck the question when the question needed ducking. Maybe it says something that others with a lot more experience with this sort of thing haven’t ventured a guess in the wake of Katrina?