The Corner

1976 Redux?

Psychology is with me (in the not very original idea floated in here that the trajectory of the Obama-McCain race will be late-closing, like Carter-Ford).

E-mail:  Rich,In applied psychology there is a well-known phenomenon called the conservative decision shift.  In approach-avoidance choice conflicts, ultimately the negative elements carry increasingly disproportionate weight as the time of decision draws nearer causing a tendency to favor the safer alternative.  Given the negatives Obama has accumulated thus far, with more likely to come, I would predict a strong move to McCain in late October.  The late closing of HC and Obama’s deacceleration are evidence of the same principle.


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