The national polling looks pretty horrific for Trump and he’s clearly the underdog, but I will be shocked if it doesn’t tighten up such that this is a real race in the fall.
Sean Trende, who’s down on Trump’s chances, has an interesting thread that circles around to this conclusion:
My hot takes on contemporary Twitter discussions:
(1) I think Trump is likely to lose. Maybe 1-in-5 chance he wins(?)
(2) I don't think the 1988 example is terribly apposite; that was in the midst of a convention bounce, Trump is an incumbent, polarization, etc. BUT 1/
— Sean T at RCP (@SeanTrende) July 27, 2020