Ramesh is sanguine about the impact on the pro-life cause of an underwhelming showing for Republicans this fall compared with the high expectations that prevailed in June: “A political setback for Republicans will be a rout for pro-lifers as well only if one or more of the following happen: 1) Republicans do so poorly and their defeats are blamed so widely on the abortion issue that the party capitulates on the issue; or 2) Republicans do so poorly that Democrats can pass a sweeping abortion-rights bill at the federal level.” I am more concerned about the first of these possibilities.
Elections matter in America for two reasons: one is because they decide who can wield power, and the other is because they are interpreted as statements by the voting public. It is the latter function that will be much contested in 2022, and why it might end up being The Most Important Election for pro-lifers.
Narratives about elections are more powerful when multiple factions have a common incentive to interpret them the same way. If Republicans underperform in 2022, there will be three distinct groups bent on reading the tea leaves as proof that voters rejected Dobbs and do not want pro-life policy:
- Democrats, liberals, and progressives. They of course would like nothing more than to conclude that they have discovered a perennially winning political position in taking a maximalist pro-abortion position everywhere on every aspect of the issue. They will be highly motivated to spin any and all victories as a Dobbs backlash.
- Squishy Republicans and conservatives, perhaps including not only Beltway political consultants and veteran elected officials but also Republican-appointed Supreme Court justices, most notably Chief Justice Roberts. Some of these folks have never believed in the pro-life cause, and others have never wanted to fight over it or any other major cultural issue. Their case within the party, and within the courts as well, will be strengthened by any perception that Dobbs was a loser at the ballot box.
- Donald Trump and his die-hard defenders. Some of these folks are quite pro-life, and some are not; but having invested heavily in picking a series of sketchy nominees in Republican primaries, if those nominees disproportionately fail in November, Trump’s defenders will have an enormous incentive to shift the blame (witness their obsession with blaming the two Senate losses in Georgia on Mitch McConnell and resistance to cutting more COVID checks, rather than on Trump’s campaign to sow mistrust of Georgia’s electoral process). Their loudest spokespeople are likely to join the Democrats in blaming Dobbs in order to deflect blame from Trump.
Whether any of this is true could end up being beside the point, if people within the two parties come to a common conclusion that drives the behavior of people in power and people who run campaigns. Anyone who cares about the pro-life cause should approach 2022 accordingly.