It’s been one of the most important elements in Obama’s campaign. Rasmussen today:
It is impossible to overstate the importance of Obama’s tax cut promise to his current lead in the polls. Thirty-one percent (31%) of voters now believe that their taxes will go down if Obama is elected. Only 11% believe that will happen if McCain wins (see crosstabs). Obama has made remarkable progress on this issue in recent months. In August, only 9% believed Obama would cut their taxes (see trends Thirty-seven percent (37%) believe their taxes will go up in an Obama Administration while 26% say the same about McCain.
Meanwhile, New York Times detects some movement on taxes for McCain:
Mr. McCain’s heavy focus on taxes in the final weeks of the campaign seems to be having some effect, the poll found. Forty-seven percent of voters said Mr. McCain would not raise taxes on people like them, up from just 38 percent who said so two weeks ago. (And 50 percent said they thought Mr. Obama would raise taxes on people like them, while 44 percent said he would not; both numbers are similar to two weeks ago.)