At yesterday’s White House event announcing a new steel plant in Iowa, Trump said, ‘We have the best economy we’ve ever had.’
Several states can make an argument for being the most important one in the midterms, but Iowa belongs up there. The state features a competitive — perhaps even Democratic-leaning — open-seat U.S. Senate race and at least two (perhaps three) competitive U.S. House races. Incumbent GOP governor Kim Reynolds is not running for a third term; Republican Zach Lahn is in a tough race against Democrat Rob Sand. The state will also elect a lieutenant governor, state attorney general, secretary of state, treasurer, auditor, and secretary of agriculture. All 100 seats in the state house are up, as are half of the 50 seats in the state senate.
Yesterday, President Trump announced, “Mesabi Metallics will be building the largest steel plant in American history in the great state of Iowa.”
The good news is that construction of the plant is expected to create 6,000 temporary construction jobs. Once the facility is operational, the mill will employ an estimated 1,750 full-time team members. The bad news is that the plant is not expected to be operational until 2030, roughly two years after President Trump leaves office.
President Trump won Iowa with more than 55 percent in 2024. But his job-approval rating was recently polled at 41 percent, and Iowans mostly blame Trump and the Republicans for their economic disappointment.
Nearly seven-in-10 Iowans (69 percent) see the economy in a negative light and a majority (52 percent) say Republicans in Congress have “focused on policies that have made life less affordable.” 47 percent blame Trump and Republicans in Congress for rising costs, compared to just 35 percent who say the same for Democrats. Iowans also blame specific policies from Trump and Republicans in Congress for increased costs – 21 percent blame tariffs and 16 percent blame the war with Iran.
Iowa’s unemployment rate is just 3.2 percent. But that figure obscures a darkening economic outlook. In July, the Center for Agricultural and Rural Development at Iowa State University, the Iowa Farm Bureau Federation, and the Iowa Bankers Association offered a detailed assessment of the state’s agricultural economy, and concluded:
Iowa’s agricultural economy is several years into a downturn. . . . Iowa row crop farmers are facing their third year in a row in which costs are generally exceeding prices, underlying the current downturn in Iowa’s agricultural economy. Corn and soybean prices are under pressure due to growth in corn and soybean production outpacing growth in corn and soybean usage.
Iowa’s rural communities are shrinking. “Between 2001 and 2025, nonmetro and rural Iowa counties never posted positive net domestic migration in aggregate for any year except for 2021. Only metro Iowa has positive net domestic migration flows.”
You likely have noticed the record price of diesel fuel, which is what most farm equipment runs on; as one fuel economist noted, “harvest is the single operation that uses the most fuel and runs from now [August] through November for most of the country.”
A July study calculated that because of the Trump administration’s tariffs and trade wars, in Iowa, average household costs increased by $600, the manufacturing industry lost 2,700 jobs, and the state’s gross domestic product decreased by $2 billion.
Ordinarily, Republicans could argue that Iowans might have unrealistic expectations for the state of the economy, but the president declared upon his inauguration, “The golden age of America begins right now. From this day forward our country will flourish and be respected again all over the world. We will be the envy of every nation, and we will not allow ourselves to be taken advantage of any longer. . . . America will soon be greater, stronger, and far more exceptional than ever before. I return to the presidency confident and optimistic that we are at the start of a thrilling new era of national success.”
When you promise a golden age, you had better deliver a golden age. And if you don’t deliver a golden age within two years of taking office, you can’t be surprised if voters start thinking about voting for the other guys.
At yesterday’s White House event announcing the steel plant, Trump said, “We have the best economy we’ve ever had. . . . We have the best economy, the biggest investment in the history of our country. Think of that. $21 trillion is being invested.”