Today, I stepped gingerly into the damp air with my son for the first time in a week. For days, we hadn’t gone to a playground due to the coronavirus lockdown and warnings in my city. The quiet of the usually humming urban neighborhood was gone, replaced by chirping birds and a stray cat sitting on the sidewalk. It was a strange scene, and I had to repress the desire to compare it to one of those post-apocalyptic films where someone wakes up and the world has stopped.
Israel has taken increasingly strict precautions against the rising coronavirus pandemic. With the government having banned travelers from affected countries, quarantined everyone returning, and now locking down the country, we in Jerusalem are experiencing what much of U.S. and the world will soon experience.
As someone who has now gone through a quarantine and a lockdown, I have learned a few lessons so far. First, you don’t need much extra toilet paper. Commodities will still exist, but it’s worth to stock up on snacks and also things to do at home, especially if you have kids. That can mean more LEGO or free weights or puzzles. People need variations of things to do, and they need aspects of their daily routine to remain the same. Resist the temptation to sleep in and become lethargic. If you like coffee, stock up on that instead of the toiletries.
The U.S., UK, and many governments are relying on a recent Imperial College London study that modeled what countries could do to lessen the impact of coronavirus on health systems. This study examined what would happen if countries did nothing to stop the spread of the virus and then examined various tactics, such as social distancing, case isolation, household quarantine, and school closures that could mitigate or suppress the impact. The study’s dozens of co-authors were chiefly concerned with not overwhelming intensive care units of hospitals with a surge in virus patients. Their study and others like it pushed concepts such as “flattening the curve” that we’ve heard about. All this means is that instead of rapid infection rates, people will be infected in smaller batches over a longer period of time. We’re in lockdown to slow the rate of infection.
Policymakers and media tend to want to see faster results than the study calls for, speaking of two weeks, rather than months. It is better to plan for months of rolling lockdowns, and that means a bit of accommodation. For instance, where you are now will likely be where you will stay for a while. If being close to family is important, then plan on being there. Airlines and airports appear to be shutting down more. Vacations will be put off, and even social events like birthdays may be minimal affairs. The world is becoming rapidly smaller after decades of globalization that appeared to put everything at our fingertips. In some ways, this corrective can be good for making people more aware of local realities. On the other hand, a long hangover from this experience will set in.
The economic impact of this crisis is likely going to be much larger than anticipated. It will start by hurting some industries and then spread to others. It’s important to account for this second economic curve that also needs to be flattened. In Israel, after just two weeks of increasing restrictions, there were already 400,000 people applying for unemployment, with some 6,000 registering every hour. Estimates say as many as a million, which is a quarter of the workforce, will be out of work by the end of March. How governments will manage this economic impact is a major hurdle.
When I first went out to buy extra goods, such as rice and potatoes, for the long haul, it was like entering a new era. I didn’t know what we’d need in two weeks. Today, I feel most sorry for my children, suddenly out of school and away from friends, living in a bubble at home that feels more like an isolated space station than part of a wider society for them. This virus and the suggested “social distancing” makes one more wary of strangers, wary of taking the kids to the playground, for instance. This leads to a public that is more irritable and paranoid over time. Media reporting daily death tolls adds to insecurity. Unfortunately, the bad news has only just begun. The models predict that we will see rising cases and death tolls through the summer, if not in our own community, then in others. My advice: Take it one day at a time, don’t be afraid to ask for help, and give support and find innovative ways to connect, such as online chats with friends and family. And, as gyms and parks may close, get some exercise. It’s important for peace of mind.