Today, St. Louis University and YouGov released the results of a poll of 900 likely voters in Missouri. It asked about a range of policy issues including abortion, legalizing professional sports betting, and abolishing the state sales tax for groceries. Most notably, it found that the proposed ballot measure to place legal abortion in Missouri’s constitution was approved by 44 percent of voters with only 37 percent in opposition. This poll has been covered by a number of local news outlets including the Kansas City Star, the Missouri Independent, and the Columbia Daily Tribune.
The fact that the proposed ballot proposition does not have majority support is good news for pro-lifers. The polling on recent abortion ballot propositions in both Michigan and Ohio was surprisingly accurate. Between August 2022 and November 2022, 15 separate statewide polls were conducted in Michigan on Proposal 3, which placed legal abortion in the state constitution. Average support for Proposal 3 in these 15 polls was 57 percent — which was nearly identical to support for Proposal 3 on Election Day. Similarly, the average of eight statewide polls in Ohio accurately predicted support for Issue 1 in November 2023.
A body of political-science research shows that ballot propositions usually lose support as Election Day draws near. This has not necessarily been the case with recent abortion ballot propositions. That said, polling data have also shown that abortion ballot propositions have failed to gain support over the course of the campaign. Overall, the fact that Missouri’s proposed abortion ballot question is polling below 50 percent is good news for pro-lifers. It is further evidence that pro-lifers can win statewide direct-democracy campaigns in red states. Pro-life activists at both the national and state level should take note.