Last week, several mainstream media outlets reported that Donald Trump supports the idea of a federal 16-week abortion ban with exception for rape, incest, and the life of the mother. Unsurprisingly this was met with a great deal of criticism. Some pro-life groups were critical of President Trump because they felt that a 16-week ban would prevent only a relatively small percentage of abortions from being performed. Other pundits think that abortion is a toxic issue politically for a Republican candidate. As a result, it is their opinion that President Trump should not publicly support any federal limits on abortion.
However, a recent poll of over 1,500 adults, conducted by the Economist and YouGov, shows that a federal 16-week abortion ban enjoys plurality support. Specifically, the poll found that 48 percent of adults would support such a ban, with only 36 percent opposed. It also found that 46 percent of Americans think that abortion should at most be allowed under “special circumstances.” Less than a fourth or adults thought that abortion should be legal with no restrictions. Overall, this poll adds to a body of survey research showing that pluralities of Americans are not comfortable with abortions performed after the first trimester.
Supporting a 16-week abortion ban might well be good politics and good policy for both President Trump and for pro-lifers. In the 1990s and 2000s, pro-life Republicans eagerly supported the federal ban on partial-birth abortion. That piece of legislation was signed into law by President George W. Bush and upheld by the Supreme Court in 2007. The legal weight of the partial-birth-abortion ban probably prevented few abortions. However, the debate over the ban educated many Americans on the permissive nature of abortion policy in the U.S. It also exposed how extreme many Democratic elected officials were on the abortion issue. Debates over a law protecting preborn children after 16 weeks’ gestation might well serve a similar useful purpose this decade.