The Corner

Elections

A One-Point Race in Some Key Battlegrounds?

Further to the points made by David and Jim below, a new spate of polls shows one-point margins in a couple crucial states. The polls have Trump up by one or tied in Georgia, and Biden up by one in Ohio, North Carolina, and Florida. I talked to Robert Cahaly of Trafalgar over the weekend, and you don’t have to buy the strong version of his theory to believe, as I do, that if a poll has Trump down one point in a state he has a very good chance of winning it. These latest polls, if accurate, suggest that Trump’s narrow path to another upset win is plausible. The campaign has always been focused on Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and Arizona, and then Michigan or Pennsylvania to get over the top (assuming it doesn’t give back Iowa, Ohio, or Texas, of course). He could easily win those first four states, although Michigan or Pennsylvania still look like a reach at the moment.

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