There is not a single poll currently included in the FiveThirtyEight polling average of Arizona’s gubernatorial race between Republican Kari Lake and Democrat Katie Hobbs that Hobbs holds a lead in. Similarly, there is not a single poll currently included in the FiveThirtyEight polling average of Arizona’s U.S. Senate race between Republican Blake Masters and Democrat Mark Kelly that Masters holds a lead in. Lake leads 48.6–45.9. Kelly leads 48–45.
I’m not the first to observe the discrepancy in their respective performances, but the consistency with which it shows up seems remarkable and underscores the importance of candidate quality — as in the appeal of a candidate’s background, level of likeability, and oratory skills, not moral character — to winning elections.
Now, this is not a perfectly controlled experiment; Kelly is an incumbent and savvy campaigner. Hobbs is neither, but Kelly has a true-blue voting record that should be a major liability at a time when most Americans think the country’s headed in the wrong direction under the stewardship of unified Democratic control of the federal government. Kari Lake and Blake Masters are running in the same state, in equally notable races, in what is expected to be a good year for the GOP. They both secured the coveted Trump endorsement during their primaries. They both say they believe the 2020 presidential election was stolen from the former president. And yet, Kari Lake is excelling where Blake Masters is not.