The immediate problem for Republicans is that the problems of Trump’s influence in 2022 could be exacerbated with his running for the presidency in 2024.
The unpleasant reality of Republican politics and conservative policy right now is that it is impossible to meaningfully analyze anything without reference to the question of whether Republican primary voters are going to choose conservatism or Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential primary.
In 2022, despite not being on the ballot, Trump proved toxic to Republican hopes of taking the Senate, as well as to Republicans in a number of other races, such as gubernatorial and House campaigns. The Trump effect played out along several different fronts: the impact of Trump and his endorsements on shaping who ran for the Senate and who won the primaries; the unpopularity of Trump with the midterm electorate and its effect on the turn of independent voters against many Republican candidates; and the Democrats’ ability to use the specter of Trump to drive turnout in states with major contested races and Trump-anointed candidates.
Will that dynamic repeat itself this time around? The 2024 Senate map should be wildly favorable to Republicans. The bluest states the party is defending are Florida, Texas, Missouri, Indiana, Utah, and Mississippi — all solidly red territories. And only one Republican (Mike Braun of Indiana) has thus far announced his retirement. Democrats, by contrast, have two retirements (Debbie Stabenow in Michigan and Dianne Feinstein in California), one defection (Kyrsten Sinema leaving the party sets up a three-way race with progressive congressman Ruben Gallego as the likely Democrat nominee), and seats to defend in red states (West Virginia, Montana, and Ohio) and battleground states (Pennsylvania, Nevada, Wisconsin, and to a lesser extent Virginia, New Mexico, Minnesota, and Maine).
The immediate problem for Republicans is that all of the problems of Trump’s influence in the party in 2022 could be exacerbated with his running for the presidency again in 2024. Time will tell how this shapes the choices of who runs and who sits out. Thus far, Jim Justice is leaning towards running in West Virginia, as are Dave McCormick in Pennsylvania, Jim Banks in Indiana, and Kari Lake and Karrin Taylor Robson in Arizona, while Mitch Daniels in Indiana, Larry Hogan in Maryland, and John James in Michigan have said they would not run. Other potentially race-altering recruits, such as Doug Ducey and Blake Masters in Arizona, have been quiet. Vivek Ramaswamy, a potential candidate in Ohio, is currently running for president instead.
One thing I will be watching closely is when the primaries are conducted and when candidates can file. Potential candidates who don’t want to share a ticket with Trump, or who think Trump’s influence within the party is too powerful to overcome, may be playing a waiting game, so the later the primaries are held, the better. Some states, however, may choose the most efficient way of doing things and hold their Senate primary the same day as the presidential primary. That’s what Texas will be doing: the filing deadline is December 11, and Ted Cruz will be seeking renomination on March 5, the day of the presidential primary. (A runoff, if one were needed, would be May 28.)
As of now, the presidential calendar calls for the Republican primaries to begin in Iowa on February 5, with Super Tuesday on March 5, two-thirds of the delegates selected by March 19, and the whole shebang wrapped up by June 4. But with even that calendar unsettled, many states have yet to set their primary dates or even filing dates for 2024 Senate primaries. Nevada has a Senate filing deadline of March 15, nearly three weeks after its scheduled Republican presidential primary (which itself is three weeks after the current date for the Democratic presidential primary). Even if those presidential dates move, the Senate primary to pick a challenger to Jacky Rosen is currently scheduled to be held on June 11, a week after the presidential primaries are over.
Arizona has a filing deadline of April 8, allowing a candidate to enter the race at a point at which the presidential nomination may either be already settled or close to it. Its primary is scheduled for August 6, three weeks after the Republican convention. The late primary could be especially pivotal if Ducey or Masters decides to get in the race.