One week ago, headed into the debate, Donald Trump’s path to 270 electoral votes in November was growing increasingly clear and plausible.
His lead in usually-blue Iowa looked solid. The last five polls in Ohio showed Trump ahead. Four of the last seven polls in Florida had Trump ahead. The last four polls in Nevada put Trump ahead. Trump led or was tied in five polls in North Carolina in early to mid-September. The last five polls in Pennsylvania had Hillary with leads from just 1 to 3 points.
States that had once looked noncompetitive suddenly appeared to be within reach. CBS and the Gravis poll showed Trump ahead in Colorado.
If Trump won all of the traditional red states, with no surprises in states like Georgia or Arizona, and if he won Ohio, Nevada, North Carolina, Florida and Colorado, and he would finish with 275 electoral votes. (Polling indicates Trump will also probably win Maine’s First Congressional District, giving him 276.)
If Trump were to win all of those and overcome that small margin in Pennsylvania, he would win 294 electoral votes, the most for any Republican since George H.W. Bush in 1988.
But that was a week ago. After the debate… the outlook isn’t so bright for Trump. Three pollsters – Quinnipiac, Opinion Survey, and Mason-Dixon – have surveyed Florida since the debate; all three put Hillary ahead, by one to four points.
In Nevada, the post-debate Las Vegas Review Journal survey puts Hillary ahead by 1; the Suffolk puts her ahead by 6.
Quinnipiac’s new survey in North Carolina finds Clinton up by 3 points; Bloomberg released a post-debate poll putting Clinton ahead by a single point.
In Pennsylvania, Quinnipiac finds Hillary up 4.
Monmouth puts Clinton ahead in Colorado by 11 points.
The good news for trump is that Quinnipiac still has him ahead in Ohio.
All of these states are close. But the evidence is mounting that Trump did himself and his party a real disservice with his debate performance last week.