On October 19, the Canadian province of Alberta will vote on a referendum . . . on whether to hold another referendum on the province separating from Canada.
Way back in the early 1990s, when we rode dinosaurs to school, I remember a college professor looking at the breakup of the Soviet Union, and speculating that in the years to come, the United States or other western countries could see a similar split into smaller states.
By and large, that has not come to pass… yet. But that doesn’t mean some hostile states haven’t tried to fan the flames of separatism. Over the years, the Russian government has actively collaborated with European and American separatist movements — Alaska, as well as “Texas and California in the United States, Catalonia in Spain, and Scotland in the United Kingdom.” Few of these movements have picked up any serious momentum, although it’s unsurprising that various regional peoples and movements get frustrated with their national government and periodically start making noises about breaking off and forming their own country.
But there’s another separatist movement that appears to be gaining some steam. On October 19, the Canadian province of Alberta will vote on a referendum… not on separation from the rest of Canada, but whether to hold another referendum on the province separating from Canada.
At this point, polling suggests the referendum will not pass, with anywhere from 19 percent to 35 percent supporting independence.
Canada’s intelligence agency, the Canadian Security Intelligence Service, said it expects foreign efforts to influence the referendum.
In a letter to [Alberta NDP Leader Naheed] Nenshi dated July 27, CSIS director Dan Rogers said the agency will investigate any threats of foreign states attempting to interfere with Canadian democratic processes, including the October referendum in Alberta.
“Democratic events such as the upcoming referendum could create the conditions foreign actors seek to exploit, such as through the use of mis- and disinformation, to advance a narrative aligned with their objectives,” the letter says.
The premier of Alberta — roughly the equivalent of a state governor — is Danielle Smith, who told the Wall Street Journal that she does not support independence, but feels it is important to have the debate.
“I’ve watched the separatist movement since I got involved in politics back in the ’90s, and I don’t think I’ve ever seen the support as high as it was after the Liberals got elected last year,” Smith said in an interview, referring to Prime Minister Mark Carney’s party. She said 700,000 Albertans—out of about five million—have signed petitions either for leaving or staying.
“I think we need to have the debate and have the answer,” she said.
The outcome will have far-reaching consequences for Smith’s legacy, Alberta’s fortunes and Canada’s efforts to buttress its economy amid fraying U.S. ties. Carney, who led the Bank of England during Brexit, has called the referendum a “dangerous bluff” that could undercut Canada’s international reputation as a reliable business partner.
Smith insists she wants Alberta to remain part of Canada, albeit with substantial autonomy. But she made it easier for separatists to have a vote, and critics say she fanned their grievances.
A Canadian national government that worries that a province is interested in seceding might be more inclined to make concessions, compared to a province that is just irritated in the usual ways.
Back in 1995, the French-speaking Canadian province of Quebec held a referendum on whether Quebec should proclaim sovereignty and become an independent country; the referendum was narrowly rejected, 50.5 percent to 49.4 percent.