California ranked dead last for the sixth consecutive year.
The Census Bureau is late with its annual state-by-state population estimates, which typically arrive in mid- to late December. But U-Haul is on time. The truck rental company published its annual “U-Haul® Growth Index” rankings of net migration between states. As the company explains:
U-Haul ranks states by their net gain (or loss) of customers who rented a one-way truck, trailer or U-Box® moving containers in one state and dropped off their equipment in another state. The U-Haul Growth Index is compiled from well over 2.5 million annual one-way transactions across the U.S. and Canada. While rankings may not correlate directly to population or economic growth, the U-Haul Growth Index is an effective gauge of how well states, metros and cities are attracting and maintaining residents.
The worst performers were mostly familiar deep-blue faces, with California ranking dead last for the sixth consecutive year (although U-Haul noted that its net loss was smaller in 2025 than in 2024). Of the eleven biggest losers, eight have completely blue governments (California, Illinois, New Jersey, New York, Massachusetts, Maryland, Connecticut, and Rhode Island) and two others (Pennsylvania and Michigan) have had Democratic governors and largely Democratic governance for some time. The lone red exception is Ohio, which also had the biggest one-year dropoff:
Oregon enjoys the largest year-over-year climb on the index, ranking 11th as a net-gain state in 2025 after ranking 34th as a net-loss state in 2024 — a jump of 23 positions. Other notable gainers include Mississippi (+18 spots), Colorado (+17), Nevada (+15), New Mexico (+15), Louisiana (+13) and Montana (+12). Ohio has the largest YOY drop on the index, falling 29 positions to 43rd as a net-loss state in 2025 after ranking 14th as a net-gain state in 2024. Virginia (-19 spots), Indiana (-17), Iowa (-12), Delaware (-12) and Nebraska (-10) also see a double-digit drop in the rankings.
There are obviously a number of variables at work here beyond simple party control: Not every red or blue state pursues the same mix of policies, has the same weather or demographics, or relies upon the same mix of industries. Still, the overall pattern remains clear and consistent, and has for some time. States with solidly red governance made up seven of the top ten states (Texas and Florida being first and second), and six of the next eight; among the top ten, there was only one blue state (Washington), and the two with Democratic governors (North Carolina and Arizona) have long had solidly Republican state legislatures. Florida, as the company notes, has ranked in the top four every year since the index started in 2015.
Americans for Tax Reform observes the pattern particular to tax rates:
Three of the top four states attracting movers have no personal income tax: Texas, Florida, and Tennessee. California is ranked dead last in the index and imposes the highest top personal income tax rate in the nation at 13.3%.
The ten best ranked states in the index have significantly lower personal income tax rates than the index’s ten worst ranked states: 3.5 percent: Average top state personal income tax rate of the 10 best ranked states. 7.2 percent: Average top state personal income tax rate of the 10 worst ranked states.
As a group, the 10 worst ranked states impose a top personal income tax rate more than twice as high as the 10 best ranked states.
Now let’s look at the top and bottom five, where the tax contrast is even starker: 2.0 percent: Average top state personal income tax rate of the five best ranked states. 9.8 percent: Average top state personal income tax rate of the five worst ranked states.
The general trend of people moving from colder northern to warmer, sunnier southern states makes California’s perennial dead-last ranking all the more appalling; it takes a lot to alienate people from California’s glorious climate and scenery, but its politicians have been up to the task. We’ll see more when we get the Census figures, but this also underlines the potential political impact of tighter borders and mass deportations in 2025 and for the next three years: States that have a persistent outflow of their own residents can stave off a collapsing population only by perennially importing foreigners. If that spigot dries up, the bluest of the blue-state models are in even more trouble than before.