You’ve heard a lot of talk about threats to democracy and to our elections, and how this faction, or that rhetoric, or that refusal to accept the results or some other factor could well destroy the functioning of the U.S. election system.
But if you want to hear about a real threat to our elections . . . consider how lingering supply-chain problems could mean your local election officials can’t get enough paper to print up the ballots the way they usually do. This morning, the Bipartisan Policy Center released a new report, Preparing for Ballot Paper Shortages in 2022 and 2024, laying out the growing concerns:
With heightened demand at home and abroad, international trade wars, and costly and unreliable shipping, many of the countries the U.S. used to import paper materials from are now retaining materials for their own populations. This volatility has caused an unexpected uptick in the market size of domestic paper mills since 2020, but less overall availability of paper for industries outside of delivery and transportation.
When faced with shortages, private companies can pivot by taking a more aggressive approach to ordering and directing customers to alternative paper types. Election officials rarely have that luxury. While ballot envelopes and other nonballot collateral can be printed on alternative paper weights and types, ballots themselves need to meet certain specifications to be processed correctly by ballot tabulators.
The center warns, “election offices that have not already placed their orders for November should do so immediately. Those unable to place orders due to uncertainty about the size of paper needed (or other similar factors) should alert vendors to anticipated order sizes and timelines. Those that have placed orders already should contact their vendors to ensure that they are on track to fulfill the orders on time. Any election office without a contract in place for November should identify a vendor, secure a contract, and place their print orders as soon as possible.”
One of the potential colossal headaches is a vendor sending a different kind of paper that doesn’t work in a ballot tabulation machine, which is calibrated to process paper of a particular opacity, brightness, or weight. Once the tabulation machines fail, a locality would suddenly have a giant stack of ballots that all need to be tabulated by hand — and we all know how calmly and rationally both campaigns and the general public respond to sudden changes in the vote tabulation process and long delays in announcing an official winner.
Runaway inflation is also a threat, or at least a complication, to the operations of the upcoming elections. The BPC report warns, “in the printing industry, costs have soared 40 percent or more. Unable to cope with rising costs of raw materials, some paper mills are breaking price contracts with print vendors. This has resulted in print vendors breaking pre-existing price contracts with election offices, further driving up costs.” The report calls for state legislatures and/or the federal government to allocate additional funds to localities to mitigate costs that are significantly higher than expected.
As if all of this wasn’t complicated enough, some states like Ohio require all ballots to be printed within the state. Ordinarily, a law like that has little consequence — but during a paper and labor shortage, it is conceivable that in-state printers will be unable to handle last-minute changes in ballot requests. “While this is a particular concern for the 2022 midterm elections, recent supply disruptions are only continuations of long-term trends, and this issue is not going away in 2024. As such, rather than a temporary exception, state legislatures should permanently allow the procurement and printing of ballot materials from vendors nationwide.”
The report also warns “courts and state legislatures should resist last-minute changes to the voting process, particularly those impacting ballot design. . . . Given the months-long lead times for obtaining ballot orders, with each passing day, the available mitigation options will shift from those that prevent problems to those that respond to them. Time is of the essence, and we encourage state and federal lawmakers to act swiftly to promote a smooth and secure election in November.”
The good news is that many local election officials will keep an eye on these kinds of details, and will be prepared. Unfortunately, it is likely that at least a few won’t — and woe to the community where local election officials run out of ballots because they didn’t print enough beforehand. These kinds of troubles will likely lead to new anecdotes of election-night confusion, and set off another round of suspicion, accusations and counter-accusations, and claims of behind-the-scenes shenanigans.