The Corner

Another Poll Showing Hillary With a Small Lead Over Trump

From the Tuesday Morning Jolt:

Hm. Another Day, Another Poll Showing Hillary With a Small Lead Over Trump

From this morning’s fresh NBC News/Gravis tracking poll:

Attention is now rapidly moving to the hypothetical match-up between the leading candidates with an emphasis on a Clinton and Trump contest. In this week’s poll, Americans are nearly split between their choice of Trump or Clinton; her margin over Trump narrows from 5 points last week to 3 points this week…  At this moment, independents break for Trump 44 percent to 36 percent.

You have to look to the actual results to see the survey results are Hillary Clinton 48 percent, Donald Trump 45 percent.

Some Democrats will complain that the sample is 33 percent Republican, 28 percent Democrat, 36 percent neither; this poll has included more Republicans than Democrats pretty consistently this year. (Exit polls in 2012 showed an electorate that was 38 percent Democrat, 32 percent Republican, 29 percent independent.)

But when you take this tracking poll, and then the PPP survey showing Hillary up 42 percent to 38 percent and the Gravis poll showing Hillary up 48 percent to 46 percent and the Quinnipiac poll showing swing states looking close… doesn’t that indicate that the general election battle between two candidates with high disapproval numbers is shaping up to be a lot closer than most Hillary fans or Trump critics, myself included, expected?


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