Another Analyst Moves Oregon Governor’s Race to ‘Toss-Up’

I’ve been closely following the surprisingly competitive Oregon governor’s race, where Republican Christine Drazan appears to have a viable shot at becoming the Beaver State’s first Republican governor since 1987. I profiled Drazan, who continues to poll neck-and-neck with her Democratic opponent, Tina Kotek, back in May. Around the same time, I profiled Kotek — a hard-left ally of the state’s outgoing governor, Kate Brown — in The Spectator. In August, amid growing concerns about the faltering red wave, I argued that “one little-noticed race where Republicans might have an unusually solid shot — and where the GOP nominee is, by all accounts, serious, focused, and competent — is my home state of Oregon.” And just one day later, as I reported at the time, “the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics moved the Oregon governor’s race from ‘Leans Democratic’ to ‘Toss-up.’”

Here was the reasoning that the Center for Politics offered for its unusually tight rating in a deep-blue state:

[Oregon] is hosting an unusual 3-way race among a trio of women who are all recent members of the state legislature: former state House Speaker Tina Kotek (D), former state House Minority Leader Christine Drazan (R), and former state Sen. Betsy Johnson, an unaffiliated, former Democrat who is more conservative than most of the members of her former party and who has been backed by Nike co-founder Phil Knight. The race sets up an unusual situation where the winner may not need to crack even 40%. Additionally, the 3 candidates all served concurrently in the state legislature, which should provide the campaigns ample opportunities to draw contrasts among the candidates. Outgoing Gov. Kate Brown (D) is deeply unpopular, and there may be some desire for change in the Beaver State. Johnson, the independent, would still be the most surprising winner, and Kotek and Drazan both will be working to try to prevent their voters from flocking to her banner. There’s just enough uncertainty here that we’re looking at the race as a Toss-up now.

Yesterday, the Cook Political Report followed suit, moving the Oregon governor’s race from “Lean Democrat” to “Toss-Up”:

That’s the second time that CPR has downgraded Democrats’ chances in the race. In July, the group moved the race from “Likely Democrat” to “Lean Democrat.” CPR writes:

With less than two months until Election Day, the 2022 gubernatorial map has seen some surprising shifts since the outset of the cycle. Republicans had initially started targeting the Rust Belt, hoping to flip control in perpetual swing states like Michigan and Pennsylvania. But, saddled with weak and cash-poor candidates, those contests have moved down the priority list as new opportunities have emerged.

No race for governor has been more surprising than Oregon, which we last shifted into the competitive column at the end of July, moving it from Likely to Lean Democrat. Now, we are changing our race rating once again into the Toss Up column. 

Thanks to the presence of a well-funded independent candidate, private and public polling has shown the GOP nominee, former state House Minority Leader Christine Drazan, neck and neck with Democratic former House Speaker Tina Kotek. Former state Sen. Betsy Johnson — a bespectacled former Democrat-turned-independent — threatens to act as a spoiler. There’s a clear trend of both Kotek and Drazan pulling in the low 30s, while Johnson has yet to poll higher than the mid-20s, though she has argued that will rise post-Labor Day.

Drazan has run a really impressive campaign thus far, presenting conservative principles and policy goals in a commonsensical, reasonable way to Oregon’s left-leaning electorate. Her performance in the first gubernatorial debate was particularly strong:

Oregon is still a blue state, so Drazan undoubtedly remains the underdog. But something is only impossible until it happens.