I’ve been saying for a while that any of the top four Democrats could win Iowa, as well as some fifth possibility we aren’t thinking about. According to the latest Iowa poll, that fifth possibility looks like Amy Klobuchar, who’s jumped up to 10 percent. Also notable is that Biden is narrowly ahead, which gets to a reason that I’ve begun to think he has a better chance than I’ve been giving him — he has more paths than the other candidates. If he wins Iowa, he’s likely the nominee; if he loses in the right way (top three), he’s still got a chance and might be able to survive a follow-on loss in New Hampshire as well, again, depending on the exact circumstances. But this thing is wide open.