Is Joe Biden’s popularity increasing just in time for him to gear up for his bid for a second term? I’ve certainly been told as much. Sometimes, I’ve even started to believe it. But then I read a poll such as this one from AP-NORC, and I wonder if the whole thing is a mirage:
Approval of President Joe Biden has dipped slightly since a month ago, nearing the lowest point of his presidency as his administration tries to project a sense of stability while confronting a pair of bank failures and inflation that remains stubbornly high.
That’s according to a new poll by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, which shows there have been modest fluctuations in support for Biden over the past several months. The president notched an approval rating of 38% in the new poll, after 45% said they approved in February and 41% in January. His ratings hit their lowest point of his presidency last July, at 36%, as the full weight of rising gasoline, food and other costs began to hit U.S. households.
The recent bank failures obviously have something to do with this shift, and, if those are resolved without further incident, Biden’s numbers will probably jump back up. Nevertheless, the highly malleable nature of his approval rating — up when things look stable, down when anything bad happens, under 50 percent at all times — suggests that Biden is a hostage to fortune in a way that many other politicians are not. As the AP notes:
When it comes to the president, people generally do not swing between the extremes of absolute loyalty and aggressive loathing that have been a feature of this era’s divided politics.
In one sense, that’s a strength of Biden’s. In another sense, it’s a weakness. The general public seems to see this president as a sort of middle-of-the-road general manager. When times are good — or when the opposition is committing suicide — that’s useful. When times are not good, it’s less so. Given the current state of the GOP, I would say that Biden has a better than even chance of winning re-election in 2024. I’d also say that the 2022 midterms have prompted a serious overcorrection within the pundit class that may become more apparent over time. Because commentators tend to be so obsessed with horse races, they sometimes have trouble distinguishing between issues and personalities, and, in my estimation, that’s exactly what’s happened here. In 2022, the Democrats did better than they had expected to do. They did not get rid of the political liabilities that had led them to be disfavored in the first instance. If the AP’s poll is correct, those liabilities — most notably inflation and the harsh remedies that it requires — are still with us, and Biden’s fate is still inextricably tied to them. Given the predictions for the near year, that would make me nervous if I were a Democrat.