Provincialism, ideological blinders, and laziness have caused conservatives to think that all they must do to win elections is turn out their base.
Since George H. W. Bush’s massive landslide in 1988 — winning what was effectively the third Reagan term — Republicans have lost the popular vote in presidential elections in 1992, 1996, 2000, 2008, 2012, 2016, and 2020.
I’m 34 years old, so in my lifetime, after H. W.’s ’88 win, the GOP has won the popular vote exactly once — George W. Bush’s reelection as a wartime president — while winning the Electoral College just three times: 2000, 2004, and 2016.
In the last ten years, Republicans have won control of both houses of Congress in just two cycles: 2014 and 2016. The GOP might — might! — squeak through and win bare majorities in the House and Senate this year . . . in an issue environment that includes inflation running close to 10 percent, $3.80 per gallon gasoline, and the incumbent president holding a 42 percent approval rating.
A generation ago, the GOP was once a coalition of the “silent majority.” In the ’80s, it became a no-kidding majority coalition.
How about trying that again?
Building a majority coalition would first mean dispensing with the patently incorrect notion that the GOP currently is a majority coalition. It’s not. It should therefore stop acting like one. Over the last 30 years, too many Republicans in safely red districts have found themselves echoing the late film critic Pauline Kael: “How could the Democrats have won? I don’t know anyone who voted for them.”
Provincialism, ideological blinders, and, yes, laziness, have caused conservatives to think that all they must do to win elections is turn out their base. Unless they’re content to continue losing elections, the sooner conservatives and their imperfect political vehicle in the GOP reject that thinking, the better.
Instead, the Republican Party must become the party of persuasion.
It should embrace leaders that are popular and effective across broad segments of society — proven winners at the ballot box like Brian Kemp of Georgia, Mike DeWine of Ohio, and Ron DeSantis of Florida, among others.
It should build its issue sets around what will appeal to voters in the suburbs of Pittsburgh and Tampa and Orange County, not to the 3 million people — less than 1 percent of the American population! — who watch Fox News talking heads on a given weeknight.
It should do the bare minimum to appeal to the millions of younger voters who voted in droves for Democrats. To those who say young Americans are irretrievably lost, I say, “That’s a loser’s mentality for a loser’s coalition.”
It should dispense with the idea that big-tent conservative ideas aren’t — or can’t be — competitive in blue states like New York and Massachusetts. If Ron DeSantis and Glenn Youngkin can turn big purple states like Virginia and Florida red, then Illinois and California can be turned purple. Preemptively ceding that ground is a loser’s mentality for a loser’s coalition. Do you know what has no chance of making blue states competitive and locking down purple states? Sticking with proven loser Donald J. Trump and his grievances for another six years.
The path forward is there. It’s right in front of our faces. There are already Republican governors showing the way ahead.
There are also Republicans demonstrating how to continue losing.
Last week, Kari Lake — the Republican who may or may not end up losing a very winnable governorship in Arizona — asked voters at a campaign rally, “We don’t have any McCain Republicans in here, do we?”
After reveling in the crowd’s boos, Lake continued, “Well, get the hell out!”
This would be political malpractice if the Republican Party were as strong as it was in 1988. For today’s Republicans, it’s the essence of hubris and insanity.
Is anyone else tired of all the losing yet?