Democrats are spending money like a red tsunami is coming, which is a pretty good sign that their internal numbers indicate one is coming.
With a week until the midterm elections, Democrats are desperate for any bit of good news they can find, and most Republicans feel good but worry about any last-minute complacency or taking their foot off the gas.
If you’re a Democrat, the New York Times cheered you up this morning, by unveiling poll results showing Mark Kelly ahead of Blake Masters in Arizona, Raphael Warnock ahead of Herschel Walker in Georgia, and John Fetterman ahead of Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania. Perhaps most unnervingly for Republicans, the Times survey found Republican Adam Laxalt in a tie with Catherine Cortez Masto.
I feel like Republican candidates usually over-perform their final poll average, but Nevada might be a state where the Democratic get-out-the-vote operations are good enough help their party over-perform compared to the final polls. In 2010, Democrat Harry Reid blasted past his final polls, Republican Dean Heller didn’t perform quite as well as his final polls in 2012, Jacky Rosen overperformed her final polls in 2018 when taking on Heller. Maybe Harry Reid’s old political machine won’t work as well after his passing, but if you’re a Republican, you might not feel quite so confident with a one percent lead heading into Election Day.
Beyond that… as much as the Siena survey cheered Democrats, as John mentioned below, the final Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll shows GOP governor Brian Kemp leading Stacey Abrams by 7 points, and Walker ahead by one point. Back in October 2o20, the final Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll showed Biden at 47 percent and Trump at 46 percent, Jon Ossoff at 46 percent and incumbent GOP senator David Purdue at 45 percent. On Election Day, Biden barely edged out Trump with both just above 49 percent, and Purdue won 49.7 percent to Ossoff’s 47.9 percent, just short of the threshold to avoid a runoff. (Purdue lost the runoff to Ossoff.)
It’s worth noting that very few polls this year have shown either Warnock or Walker over 50 percent, and Libertarian Senate candidate Chase Oliver is usually getting two or three percentage points. I look at that pattern and think that adds up to a Senate race likely to go to a December 6 runoff, but other people, including Erick Erickson, foresee Walker winning outright on Election Night, with no runoff.
Beyond that, the day has not brought much good news for Democrats.
In Arizona, Kari Lake has led the last four polls in the governor’s race. Sure, Mark Kelly still leads in the Senate polls, but those leads are usually within the margin for error.
Evidence that Evan McMullin is going to beat two-term Republican senator Mike Lee in Utah remains elusive. The latest Emerson poll puts Lee ahead by ten points, his biggest lead in a survey this year.
Out in Ohio, Tim Ryan hasn’t led a poll since September.
Democrats continue to dump money into Congressional races that would ordinarily be safe, like New York’s twenty-fifth district and the Democratic Governors Association just created an independent expenditure committee in New York to try to save Gov. Kathy Hochul. Democrats are spending money like a red tsunami is coming. That’s a pretty good sign that their internal numbers indicating one is on the way.