As the Temperature in N.H. Drops, the Cost of Heating Rises, and the Senate Race Heats Up

It’s no secret that many Republicans did not see Don Bolduc as the most effective candidate to run against incumbent New Hampshire Democratic senator Maggie Hassan. But Hassan started the cycle looking like one of the most vulnerable Senate Democrats – the Boston Globe contended she was the most vulnerable – and Bolduc, for all his flaws, trailed by only three percentage points in the Emerson poll and one point in the American Greatness/Insider Advantage survey.

Now Axios reports, “The National Republican Senatorial Committee is recommitting resources into the New Hampshire Senate race, according to an NRSC official, just days after the Senate GOP’s top super PAC cancelled its spending on behalf of nominee Don Bolduc.”

I wonder if one particular expense and issue is becoming particularly potent in New Hampshire as the temperatures drop: the high cost of heating homes and businesses. The price of home heating oil has more than doubled in a two-year span:

Heating oil just took a big leap to $5.27 per gallon, up 71 percent from one year ago at $3.08. If you look back 2 years ago to 2020, the price per gallon for heating oil was $2.04, according to ycharts.com.  2021 prices were up 64% from the previous year.

The high cost of heating oil has New Hampshire residents looking to buy alternatives… which is driving up the cost of those alternatives like wood pellets.

“We used to have quarterly issues on pricing. Now the mill is calling essentially the first of each month … with $10 or $20 a ton,” Hughston said. He pointed to local hardwood pellets, a staple of New Hampshire’s market. “Right now it’s $330 a ton, almost $50 higher than this time last year.” And more increases are likely.

More pressure comes from increased demand. The sharp spike in the cost of heating oil, used by about 40 percent of New Hampshire homes, propane and electricity has raised interest in adopting at least supple mental heat from a pellet stove.

“People are looking for alternatives,” said Kyle McGarr, assistant manager at Stove Barn. “Last year, a lot of gas fireplaces were being sold; this year it’s wood and pellet stoves.”

And this earliest taste of winter is just the beginning.

Heating fuel reserves in New Hampshire remain low, at around 60 percent of the average level over the past five years, according to the state’s Department of Energy.

In August, the U.S. Department of Energy wrote a letter to the six New England governors urging them to shore up home oil supplies to avoid shortages this winter. That hasn’t happened, according to Chris Ellms, the deputy commissioner of the New Hampshire Department of Energy…

The state expects inventories to increase as heating season begins ramping up in December, and Ellms said the state is not concerned about shortages. Cost could be an issue, with home heating expenses projected to dramatically increase this winter, according to an October forecast from the Energy Information Administration.

The price of home heating oil could rise by 27 percent, given the forecast of slightly colder weather than last winter, according to the report. Natural gas could go up by around 28 percent and propane by 5 percent.

This is just one more factor making an irritated electorate even less satisfied with the status quo, and even more inclined to consider their options before sending an incumbent back to Washington for another six years.

UPDATE: As I suspected… get ready for home heating costs to be a big closing issue in races in the northern states.