In a conference call today with reporters David Axelrod said, “We really believe North Carolina is within our reach.” One of the reasons the Obama campaign is optimistic is a new poll out from Elon University that shows Romney and Obama tied at 45 percent.
But the poll’s sample leans Democrat, with 48 percent of respondents being Democrats or independents that lean Democrat, while 41 percent are Republican or GOP-leaning independents. It’s true that in 2008 Democrats had an 11-point lead over Republicans in the election, per exit polls, but Democrats had overall a 7-point advantage in 2008. Now Gallup, for instance, is saying that polls indicate that electorate will be plus one Republican … which suggests that unless North Carolina is an extreme outlier, the Democratic advantage will be significantly less than 7 points.