At Axios, Dan Primack tries to wave away the terrible polling on the state of the economy by pretending that it is the inevitable “byproduct of a politics in which the economy is reflexively disparaged by those out of power.”
It’s not. It’s the “byproduct” of an economy that isn’t good.
Primack writes that:
Only 33% of Americans are very or somewhat satisfied with the state of the economy, according to Gallup — despite consistently strong GDP figures and the most robust job market in memory.
In Primack’s view, this is because:
Republicans think the economy is getting worse while Democrats think it’s getting better. Because the economy itself isn’t really what matters; who’s in charge of the economy is what matters.
And Republicans think this, Primack concludes, because:
Republicans and conservative media regularly shout that strong monthly job reports are weak, and that inflation is the only economic measure that really matters.
But if it were true that partisanship can explain the 33 percent number from above, one would expect to have seen the same thing when President Trump was in office. And we absolutely did not.
Primack argues that:
Democrats and left-wing media were similarly dismissive of strong economic data in the pre-pandemic years under President Trump, often emphasizing inequality over broad-based gains.
Which is true. But here’s the thing: it didn’t work. Here’s Gallup — the same outfit that Primack cites above — from January, 2020:
Americans’ confidence in the U.S. economy is higher than at any point in about two decades. The latest figure from Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index is +40, the highest reading recorded since +44 in October 2000.
Sure, “Democrats and left-wing media” were “dismissive.” But this didn’t lead to 33 percent satisfaction ratings, because, by and large, Americans aren’t stupid enough to be conned into ignoring what is in front of their eyes:
The current conditions component score of +54 is the result of 62% of Americans saying the economy is “excellent” or “good” and 8% describing it as “poor.” Meanwhile, the economic outlook component score of +26 is the result of 59% saying the economy is “getting better” and 33% saying it is “getting worse.”
Gallup’s tracking of economic confidence over the past 28 years has recorded index readings at or above the +40 mark in just nine other measurements, all between 1998 and 2000 — with the highest level recorded in January 2000, at +56, after a then-record high for the Dow. The latest reading of +40 is the only time the index has reached that level since 2000.
Nice try.