The Corner

Back of The Envelope

A GOP consultant is using this very rough, very unscientific calculation to judge the impact of turnout. It was about 105 million in 2000. If it goes to 110 million he thinks that’s probably the GOP turnout machine, which did such a great job in 2002, doing its thing. If it goes to 113-115 million both sides have probably done a great job and it will be a wash. If it hits 120 million that means the Democrats have probably succeeded in getting difficult-to-turn-out voters to the polls, and that will help them. I wouldn’t bank on this, but it’s what one insider is thinking…

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