The outcome of the Israeli election is close, too close to see what coalition will emerge.
Still, there are some conclusions to draw.
1. Once again we see why Israel is so much more popular in the United States than its Arab neighbors: because it’s a real democracy where real elections can change the government. And the turnout level, about 72 percent, shames some American elections.
2. President Obama’s campaign to unseat Prime Minister Netanyahu has probably failed. A right-wing coalition or a “national unity government” of Left and Right is far more likely than a left-wing government. In fact, Obama’s ceaseless attacks seem to have helped Netanyahu: He looked strong and tough in the face of an American president who is thought by most Israelis to be unsympathetic to their country.
3. The two major parties, Labor and Likud, did better than expected, and the minor parties were weakened. That’s probably a good trend for Israeli democracy.
4. Israel’s Left and Right are split on many social, religious, and economic issues, but not on Iran. Whatever coalition emerges will be tougher on Iran than the Obama administration and deeply worried about Obama’s prospective nuclear deal.
5. Netanyahu may be able to put together a right-wing-only coalition, but we do not yet know if he wants one. Netanyahu has sometimes preferred to be a balancer in the cabinet, not the left-most guy in a right-wing mix. A “national unity government” would allow him to play that balancer role. It would also likely feature Labor candidate Isaac Herzog as foreign minister, which would smooth Israel’s relations with the United States and Europe.
6. Had Herzog lost badly, he would soon be challenged as the Labor party’s leader. Instead his party has done credibly, perhaps even tying Netanyahu. Moreover, Labor usually wins only with a famous general at its top, like Rabin or Barak; this showing for a civilian with no combat record is striking. Herzog will still try to form a unity government, which would secure his power in Labor and make him its obvious candidate when (not if) such a national unity government collapses under the weight of inevitable policy differences.
7. If Netanyahu stays on as prime minister, which seems most likely, he is in a terrific position to criticize the terms of any new nuclear deal. More headaches for Obama and Kerry.
Israel’s voters seem to have liked Netanyahu’s U.N. speech a lot more than Obama’s curt dismissals of it.