The Corner

A Big, Beautiful Black Swan

I wrote in Politico today about how close we are to what would have seemed impossible a little over a year ago:

If you aren’t seriously contemplating the biggest black swan event in American electoral history, you aren’t paying attention.

Fifteen months ago, Donald Trump was a reality-TV star with a spotty business record and a weird penchant for proclaiming he was on the verge of running for president. Now, he’s perhaps a few big breaks and a couple of sterling debate performances away from being elected 45th president of the United States….

… f Trump can hoist himself over the bar of acceptability, he might give the voting public enough permission to make this the change election it is naturally inclined to be.

In the primaries, many people (including me) understood intellectually Trump’s odds of winning the nomination, but still had trouble accepting it because initially it seemed so unimaginable. There is even more resistance to taking on board the idea of him as the next president.

Today, in the 538 polls-plus forecast, Trump has a 37 percent chance of winning. This means the odds of him becoming president are about equal to Daniel Murphy of the Washington Nationals, currently hitting .347, getting a base hit in any single at-bat. No one is shocked when Murphy does. He got two hits on Tuesday night.

A Trump victory may not be likely, but it isn’t far-fetched. And, no, stranger things haven’t happened.


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