Had a conversation with a smart GOP insider who thinks the recent poll showing Bush with 18% of the black vote highlights a real phenomenon. Bush may not get that much of the black vote on Nov. 2, but he will make in-roads. He thinks we are a more and more integrated society where race matters less and less, so the traditional Democratic racial appeals are losing some of their force. He guesses that two election cycles from now Republicans will be getting 30% of the black vote.