The Corner

Blood on the Virtual Trading Floor

McCain has been sinking fast over at Intrade, ever since the immigration deal was announced. Now he is rated less likely than Giuliani, or Romney, or Fred Thompson to win the nomination.

The market includes contracts on candidates’ likelihood of winning their parties’ nominations and of becoming president in 2009. Dividing the second number by the first, we can figure out the market’s implicit valuation of how likely each candidate would be to win the general election if they won the nomination.

So, for example, the market gives John Edwards a 7.5 percent chance of winning the Democrats’ nomination and a 4 percent chance of becoming president. That implies that if he is nominated, the Democrats have a 53.3 percent probability of winning in November. I ran the other numbers, too.

For the Republicans:

McCain 64.4

Giuliani  42.7

Fred Thompson 40.5

Romney 37.9

For the Democrats: Clinton 78.9

Gore 78.8

Obama 61.2

Edwards 53.3

Ramesh Ponnuru is a senior editor for National Review, a columnist for Bloomberg Opinion, a visiting fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, and a senior fellow at the National Review Institute.