Imagine a couple whose marriage is on the rocks. The wife has filed for a divorce. The husband is unnerved but doesn’t believe that she means it. Additionally, from her behavior, it seems that she’s unlikely to fight for her share of the assets or to try to get custody of the kids. How do you think he’d behave? Would he take her seriously, be motivated to compromise?
Probably not.
The same was true of the EU and the United Kingdom. Parliament has spent the past three years openly signaling that they don’t really want to leave. That they certainly won’t leave without permission. The EU acted accordingly.
Now the new prime minister, Boris Johnson, has been criticized by Tory MPs for his “assumed” no-deal Brexit. The leader of the Scottish Conservative party has been especially condemning. But Johnson may simply be invoking the tried and tested psychology of negotiation. Unlike Theresa May, he is now signaling to the EU that the British government really does believe that “no deal” is better than a bad deal or no Brexit.
Being prepared for no deal is Britain’s best chance of getting a reasonable deal.