British PM Suspects Iran Played a Part in Plot to Attack Air Base

The British government now says there are “strong indications” that Iran was behind what may have been an attempt over the weekend to bomb the Royal Air Force base in Fairford, where the United States armed forces station heavy bombers that have been deployed in the ongoing war.

The British suspicions were voiced by Prime Minister Andy Burnham in comments to the BBC. He offered no evidence but made a point of “confirm[ing] our belief that we believe Iran to have played a part,” the Wall Street Journal reported.

The PM’s remarks back up the assertions of Secretary of State Marco Rubio that the United States believes a foreign actor was behind the incident, as well as President Trump’s implication that the foreign actor was Iran.

Before we get too far ahead of ourselves, we should pause to note that it has not been established that the incident, which occurred in the wee hours of Sunday morning, actually was a failed terrorist attack. At least not yet.

Still, it has been reported that the British police stumbled onto the plot because one of the five men telephoned emergency services to warn them — prior to being arrested Sunday morning. Assuming that’s true, it’s not clear whether the man got cold feet or was intentionally trying to minimize casualties in a plan that aimed to destroy aircraft.

In any event, as I related yesterday, British authorities released all five suspects on bail (with stringent conditions). They could have sought pre-charge detention for 14 days but chose not to. No one has been formally charged with a bombing conspiracy — indeed, no charges at all have been filed. And investigators reportedly did not find explosives or weapons in the three white vans that were operated by the suspects, all British nationals in their twenties.

Iran, which has no formal diplomatic relations with the United States, does maintain an embassy in London. It put out a statement that it “categorically rejects” being linked to a potential terrorist plot. It’s worth pointing out a leitmotif of the war, which has played out since President Trump initiated it in late February: While the diplomatic factions of the regime in Tehran have tried to project pragmatism and willingness to negotiate, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps — the jihadist revolutionary force that is actually running the country — admonished this summer that Iran would retaliate over Britain’s permitting its bases to be used by the United States.

The IRGC, of course, has a long history of attacking the West through terrorist proxies and cells embedded in Western countries.

I’ll repeat what I said yesterday, but now with more evidence: If the British authorities were tipped off at the last minute by one of the suspects, that confirms that this investigation is the result of police suddenly discovering suspect behavior over the weekend. That is, there are no signs, despite Trump’s comments to the contrary, that the suspects were under investigation for a long time or that the Brits had collected much intelligence about them prior to the weekend. Had it been otherwise, and if there were at this stage strong evidence of a terrorist plot coordinated by Iran, it is inconceivable that no one would have been charged and detained.

That doesn’t meant Iran was not orchestrating a bombing of the British base over the weekend; rather, it means the probe is in its very early stages and that it is being undertaken under ordinary law enforcement protocols, not wartime measures.