You have to figure Georgia governor Brian Kemp enjoying a consistent lead over Stacey Abrams in the governor’s race is good news for GOP Senate candidate Herschel Walker. (Walker himself is looking a little better in Georgia’s recent polls, as well.)
In each of the last five statewide polls, Abrams has been at… 44 percent. This doesn’t mean Kemp and his campaign can break out the party hats, but it’s a sign he’s on pace to win by a solid margin. (The easy joke here is to call Abrams an incumbent, because of her insistence that she didn’t legitimately lose the 2018 election, but at this point Abrams is a known quantity among Georgia voters, almost like an incumbent. In the Emerson poll, three of the 600 respondents said they had never heard of Kemp, who has been governor for four years. No respondents said they had never heard of Abrams. They survey found 44.6 percent of respondents felt favorably towards Abrams, and 49.5 percent felt unfavorable.)
If you’re incumbent Senate Democrat Raphael Warnock, you would rather not have your Senate career dependent upon having enough people who are voting to reelect Brian Kemp choosing to split their tickets.
In Ohio, J.D. Vance is similarly likely to benefit from GOP governor Mike DeWine winning by a wide margin, and an experienced team bringing out Republican-leaning Ohio voters.
But not every first-time GOP Senate candidate is so lucky. In Arizona, Senate candidate Blake Masters has the… er, “help” of gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake, and in Pennsylvania, Mehmet Oz might genuinely need the help of Doug Mastriano.
Finally, note that there are some signs that the Colorado governor’s race, between incumbent Democrat Jared Polis and Republican Heidi Ganahl is within five points; Ganahl’s campaign says their internal polling shows it even closer. In the Senate race, Republican Joe O’Dea is still an underdog against incumbent Democrat Michael Bennet, but this is a race worth keeping an eye on.