The chances of flipping the Mississippi Senate seat remain low, but not impossible.
National Democrats opened their checkbook in Mississippi for the first time this election cycle in a last-minute attempt to unseat the deep-red state’s incumbent GOP Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith. The Senate Majority PAC (SMP), aligned with Democratic Senate Leader Chuck Schumer of New York, purchased a $1.2 million television ad buy to boost Scott Colom, a district attorney, in the final weeks of the midterm cycle — one that has become increasingly concerning for Republicans, even in deep-red states.
The 30-second ad buy presents Hyde-Smith, seeking her second full term, as a “do-nothing” senator, and Colom as a bulwark against “corruption in both parties” and a man of Christian faith. The buy is the latest episode of a bullish Democratic Party keen on winning statewide elections in deep-red states.
President Trump traveled to Kansas on Monday to stump for incumbent Republican Senator Roger Marshall, who is staving off Democrat challenger Adam Hamilton, a pastor. Senate Majority PAC reserved $5 million in advertisements for Hamilton earlier this month, days after the Republican Senate fundraising arm reserved 9.8 million dollars in ads backing Marshall. Trump won Kansas by 16 points in 2024. Democrats seem to believe Mississippi, too, is within reach.
“Senate Majority PAC has been watching this race closely, and it is clear Colom is running a competitive race that has put Hyde-Smith on her heels,” Senate Majority PAC Lauren French said in a statement.
Democrat gubernatorial candidate Brandon Presley — yes, that Presley — came three points shy of knocking off Mississippi governor Tate Reeves in 2023, the best performance by a democrat gubernatorial candidate since 1999. It’s been over a decade since Mississippi elected a democrat statewide, and since 1982 it has elected a democrat senator, a political environment defined by economic hardship not too dissimilar from today.
To date, Hyde-Smith retains just over 2 million dollars of cash on hand, compared to Colom’s total shy of a million dollars.
The chances of flipping the Mississippi Senate seat remain low, but not impossible, according to polls. A recent poll showed Hyde-Smith’s lead over Colom sitting at four points. The poll found that former Trump voters are more willing to cross party lines, with 12 percent backing Colom, compared with just 3 percent of Kamala Harris voters who support Hyde-Smith.
After she was appointed to fill the vacant Senate seat in 2018, Hyde-Smith won reelection by ten points in 2020, underperforming Trump’s fifteen-point margin of victory on the same ballot. Trump won Mississippi by 24 points in 2024.