Today actor and former Uvalde, Texas, resident Matthew McConaughey spoke at the White House, expressing hopes for some sort of deal to address mass shootings in schools, and as far as Hollywood celebrities go, McConaughey has always seemed like a decent, well-meaning, and not particularly partisan voice.
But McConaughey comes just a few days after Biden welcomed the K-Pop group BTS in the Oval Office, discussing anti-Asian hate crimes and inclusion, and it is hard to shake the sense that the Biden White House expects pop-culture celebrities to help get them out of the doldrums, low job-approval numbers, leaks, infighting, messaging problems, and more significant policy problems.
I am reminded of 2018, when Democrats convinced themselves that Taylor Swift getting involved in races in Tennessee was a game-changer. Both then and now, Taylor Swift is about as big a name as they come in American pop culture. I did not remember Swift’s endorsements making much of a difference, but I went back and checked this 2018 article from Billboard:
After Taylor Swift surprised fans and pundits last month by throwing her endorsement behind former Tennessee Gov. Phil Bredesen for Senate and incumbent U.S. House member Rep. Jim Cooper in two closely watched races in her home state, poll watchers wondered whether the pop star — who has not typically waded into politics — could move the democratic needle.
The impact, at first, seemed, pretty significant, with Vote.org reporting a huge spike of 65,000 newly registered voters in the first 24 hours after Taylor’s Oct. 7 post. Alas, Bredesen lost his race to Republican Marsha Blackburn by a nearly 11-point margin, while Cooper kept his seat after beating Republican Jody Ball by more than 35 points.
This is why you shouldn’t turn to a pop-culture magazine for your political analysis. I suppose Tennessee Democrats could argue that Bredesen’s 43.9 percent is better than usual for Democrats. That’s a bigger share of the vote than other Democratic Senate nominees; Gordon Ball won 31.9 percent in 2014, and Marquita Bradshaw won 35.2 percent in 2020. But then again, 2018 was generally a good year for Democrats nationally.
As for Cooper’s big win with 67.8 percent in 2018, he won 65 percent in 2012, 62 percent in 2014 and 2016, and he was effectively uncontested in 2020. This is a heavily Democratic district, scoring D+9 on the Cook Partisan Voting Index. I’m sure Jim Cooper appreciated Swift’s endorsement, but he was extremely likely to win reelection with or without Swift’s support.
Swift helped Tennessee Democrats boost their turnout in 2018; it helped Bredesen get a little closer in a longshot bid in a red state, and it expanded Cooper’s margin of victory in a safe, heavily blue district. That’s not nothing, but that’s not really a significant factor compared to the overall political cultures of the state and the district. Celebrity endorsements rarely have much of an impact — and when gas is averaging $4.91 per gallon nationwide, I don’t think many voters will care what any pop star or movie star thinks.