Responding to my post earlier this morning on China’s unilaterally declared Air Defense Identification Zone, some readers are worried that if the U.S. instructs private airliners not to comply with the Chinese declaration, they will be put in harm’s way. But these aren’t pirates we’re dealing with, it’s the Chinese government. As soon as China published the declaration, the U.S. should immediately have demanded assurances from the Chinese as to the safety of our private airliners, regardless whether they comply with the order. Without such assurances, the Chinese declaration is a hostile act, tantamount to an unprovoked ”threat or use of force” under the U.N. Charter. If the Chinese stall or refuse to provide those assurances, the next right move is for the U.S. to augment its military forces in the area, in order to deliver a clear message that we will defend our citizens aboard our private aircraft as they cross through international airspace.
As I wrote in my post, the State Department wants to pretend that the Chinese Notice to Airmen (NOTAM) is like any other NOTAM, but it isn’t. It exceeds the territorial and personal jurisdiction of the Chinese government, and is not covered by international agreements (as is the case with the rare NOTAMs issued in connection with military exercises or combat situations). American acquiescence to the Chinese declaration is an unprecedented surrender, and the U.S. will almost certainly have to walk it back, particularly once Vice President Joe Biden gets an earful from his Japanese counterparts later this week on his trip to the region. Otherwise, the U.S. will be accepting a significant weakening of one of the most vital norms of international relations.
The FAA has full authority to prohibit U.S. flight crews from complying with the Chinese order, as the Japanese government did with respect to its airliners. U.S. pilots and carriers can always refuse to fly. But it is the first duty of the U.S. government to guarantee their safety as they transit through international airspace, and that means the U.S. must at a minimum demand immediate assurances of their safety from the Chinese government — again, regardless whether or not they comply with China’s order.
People should be under no illusions. This is a major international incident, arguably the most serious confrontation between China and the U.S. since the attack on a U.S. surveillance plane near Hainan Island in early 2001. And because private parties are now in the middle of it, the resolution will have to be public. That means somebody is going to have to back down. And if the U.S. doesn’t move fast to change its stance, it will be the one who backed down, with repercussions for our alliances and for the vital freedom of movement through international airspace that could be far-reaching and potentially disastrous.