The 70th anniversary of the end of World War II was earlier this month, and the Chinese Communist Party celebrated it with a parade to show off its military capabilities.
At the same time, the world was given an idea of how that force might be used in this charming video.
In the video, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) uses its tremendous missile inventory, as well as its other forces, to destroy a foreign fleet and airbase. There is no doubt what foreign country is the object of the exercise: At various points in the video, the PLA attacks what clearly appear to be an F-22 (at 2:04), a carrier strike group (at 2:14) and Arleigh Burke destroyers (at 2:19, 2:26, and 2:38).
The F-22 is an American air superiority fighter. Arleigh Burkes are American destroyers. And only the United States operates its aircraft carriers in strike groups.
The video was released by Tencent, a Chinese media conglomerate which belongs to the 60 percent of the Chinese economy the government does not own. But the influence of the regime even in the ostensibly private sector can be pervasive, especially on issues relating to national security. So it is quite possible Tencent made its video with the explicit permission and support of the government. In any event, the video would not have been made and released unless its creators were confident that it reflected the capabilities and intentions of the PLA.
For the last two decades, China has been engaged in a military buildup designed to shift the regional balance of power in its favor. That effort is now bearing the desired fruit. It is empowering the regime to engage in provocative and coercive actions designed to establish China’s hegemony in its near seas.
In the process, America’s vital national interests have not only been endangered. They are in fact already under attack and are already being compromised.
‐China is attacking the American homeland through cyberspace.
‐China has seized exclusive control of Scarborough Shoal from one ally of the United States (the Philippines) and is exerting constant pressure on the Senkaku Islands, which are administered by Japan — another ally.
‐China is exploring for oil and natural gas in disputed waters throughout the region, undermining the system of international law which the United States midwifed and guarantees.
‐China is reclaiming islands in the South China Sea, establishing military bases, and forbidding other countries to sail within twelve nautical miles of the islands, thereby extending its de facto sovereignty. To this point, the United States Navy has declined to exercise its right to sail in the international waters near the islands.
There is nothing subtle about what the Chinese leadership is doing, and there is no reason to believe they will stop unless and until they believe that the costs of their coercive tactics outweigh the benefits to their broader strategic objectives.
This is not to say that the Chinese leaders want war with the United States. Almost certainly, they do not. But just as certainly, they are willing to threaten armed conflict — on terms they believe would be favorable to their forces — as a means of forcing the United States to back down without a fight.
It is that calculus which makes the shifting balance of power in the Western Pacific so dangerous. The calculus can be changed — effective deterrence is still possible — but it will take purposeful and collective action by America and its allies using a number of different tools.
Diplomacy alone will have no effect, as the Obama administration will find out later this month, when it rolls out the red carpet for President Xi Jinping’s state visit to Washington.