The Corner

Elections

Claire McCaskill Trails GOP Challenger in Missouri Senate Race

Senator Claire McCaskill (D, Mo.) (Gary Cameron/Reuters)

With Election Day only eight days away, Republican attorney general Josh Hawley appears to maintain a slight lead over Democratic incumbent Claire McCaskill in the Missouri Senate race.

A new Missouri Scout poll released this past weekend shows Hawley ahead of McCaskill 49-45 percent, the biggest lead he’s had in the contest since early October, when a Missouri Rising survey showed him up by eight points. The Democratic senator, meanwhile, hasn’t held the advantage in a poll since late September, when a CNN survey showed her ahead 47-44.

According to Missouri Scout, Hawley has a slight edge with non-partisan voters, 44-41 percent. Self-described moderate voters prefer the incumbent Democrat by a whopping 46-point margin, 69-23 percent. Among women, McCaskill leads the attorney general 48-41 percent, while among men, Hawley is ahead 52-45 percent.

From early August until this month, survey data have consistently suggested that the race is in a dead-heat, while the last few polls seem to show Hawley pulling away. Late last weekend, nonpartisan analysis group Inside Elections shifted the contest from a tossup to “tilt Republican.”

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