Gaffes aside, Biden still has a healthy lead in most national polls of the Democratic field (two polls had his lead only at 4 and 7 percent the last couple of days, but most have it comfortably in double digits). I’m still not a believer, though. It’s important to be able to light people up, and Biden is unlikely to do it. Given her recent crowds, Warren is looking much stronger on this metric. Also, a nomination battle is always path-dependent. If Biden wins Iowa, where he also leads, although by a smaller margin than nationally, he’s almost certainly the nominee. If he loses, he’ll need to win New Hampshire to survive. Maybe Democrats think that Biden is the best candidate against Trump, and that’s simply that, but it’s hard to believe that there isn’t turbulence ahead.