The risk of a large Turkish incursion into Northern Iraq to hunt the PKK is small, some analysts say, not because of fear of provoking the U.S. or the Kurds but instead because the operation would likely be unsuccessful and costly — in part due to the calendar:
The PKK’s headquarters is on Qandil Mountain, close to the Iranian border and 60 miles south of the Turkish frontier. Northern Iraq is mountainous, and in addition to the hardships of operating on hilly terrain, Turkish forces would face the region’s harsh winter conditions by mid-November. Turkish officials say there are about 4,000 PKK militants on Iraqi territory, including five camps near the border. But amid concerns over possible Turkish military action, most of the militants already are believed to have dispersed into the civilian population. A Turkish incursion also risks fighting with Iraqi Kurds.
Should give the U.S. and Iraqi government a few months to work on the problem.