Colorado’s solidly blue second congressional district, where Obama trounced Romney by almost 20 points and the population swells every year with UC Boulder and Colorado State students, is no one’s idea of an easy GOP pickup opportunity. But with races across the country trending the GOP’s way, it’s possible Republican candidate George Leing could pull off an upset over incumbent Democrat Jared Polis.
While a Republican victory is still improbable, it’s beginning to look like a genuine possibility. According to data compiled by Magellan Strategies on the eve of the election, registered Republicans, who are outnumbered by registered Democrats in the district, enjoy an eight-point turnout advantage — up from a six-point advantage October 23. Assuming voters stand by their party, the outcome comes down whether independents, who constitute about 27 percent of second-district voters, will decide to stand by Polis (pronounced like it’s ancient Greek) or try something new.
There are other encouraging indications that Leing could become the first Asian-American Republican in Congress since 2011. He won the endorsement of the Colorado State student paper, which praised Leing’s experience in energy policy and moderate tone on heated issues such as immigration. Fox 31 Denver noted that Polis has never faced a tough race: “Republicans have finally nominated a candidate, businessman George Leing, who seems to better fit the district than Polis’s previous GOP challengers.”
The Leing campaign has had a strong presence on the notoriously left-leaning University of Colorado, Boulder campus. Campaign manager Gregory Carlson, himself a CU alumnus, says the campaign is refusing to write off student voters.
“The mistake that Republicans make is that they assume young people are liberal,” Carlson tells National Review Online. “They’re much more open to a [conservative] candidate” than one would think, he says, “but there’s been a Republican vacuum on college campuses.”
Polis, a multimillionaire businessman, has had a relatively high profile since being elected to Congress, fighting for environmental causes that don’t sit terribly well with Coloradans who stand to benefit from oil-and-gas development. (He also raised some eyebrows after he agreed to a makeover from GQ following a House floor appearance where he wore a purple golf shirt and a silver clip-on bowtie.)
The final debate between Leing and Polis took place on the CU campus last Wednesday. For about an hour, the two candidates squared off on such issues as energy, education, and the role of government. The exchange was civil, and Leing managed to stay on the offensive.
The most heated moment came when Polis, the first openly gay parent in Congress, harshly criticized the socially conservative elements of the Boulder County Republican platform. Leing, who had been the county chairman of the Boulder County Republicans, distanced himself from the party lines on same-sex marriage and abortion. When pressed on the issue afterward, he denied that these positions were unconservative on the grounds that libertarianism is a form of conservatism.
On these issues, Leing doesn’t provide voters with much of an alternative to Polis. However, on issues like the Affordable Care Act, fiscal responsibility, and the scope of government, he sounds like a very different candidate.
And when Leing discusses his biography, his conservatism really shines: He’s the children of Chinese parents who immigrated to the U.S. to escape Mao’s China, an inspiration he’s skillfully woven into his campaigning.
“It’s certainly shaped me in that I know what my life would have been like had they not come,” Leing said. “We have such a much more wonderful system [in the U.S.] that we need to preserve and cherish.” There’s plenty conservative about that – we’ll have to wait and see if Colorado voters like what they hear.