Manchin might just conclude that an independent presidential bid would be much more exciting and fun than a tough Senate reelection bid.
The Democratic ticket in November 2024 is extremely likely to be an almost-82-year-old Joe Biden and Kamala Harris. There is always a chance that, for some reason, Biden cannot finish his term and Harris will be atop the ticket. In that scenario, it’s anyone’s guess whom Harris would select as her running mate.
The Republican ticket in November 2024 is extremely likely to be either Donald Trump or Ron DeSantis. Yes, there are other Republicans running and it is early, but one of those other figures would have to mount an amazing climb to win the nomination in the coming year.
Trump reportedly wants a female running mate if he wins the GOP nomination, and reportedly sees unsuccessful 2022 Arizona gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake as a strong option.
Needless to say, plenty of Americans would cringe at the choice of Biden-Harris or Trump-Lake. Meanwhile, the organization No Labels aims to get on the ballot in all 50 states and is expected to have at least $70 million to fund a major independent bid for the presidency.
And West Virginia senator Joe Manchin keeps refusing to rule out a presidential bid. He faces challenging odds in his Senate reelection. Earlier this year, Manchin and GOP senator Susan Collins of Maine headlined a No Labels event. (Obvious joke: How should you describe a No Labels event?)
In fact, Manchin’s comments seem designed to fan the flames of talk he’ll run on the No Labels ticket.
Sen. Joe Manchin III (D-W.Va.), who has not declared whether he will run for reelection next year, and former Maryland governor Larry Hogan (R) are also supporters of the effort, and both said they have not ruled out participating in a No Labels presidential ticket, if it happens.
“If enough Americans believe there is an option and the option is a threat to the extreme left and extreme right, it will be the greatest contribution to democracy, I believe,” Manchin said in an interview. When asked whether he would participate in a No Labels ticket, he said, “I don’t rule myself in and I don’t rule myself out.”
Fun fact: In a Biden–Trump–Manchin race, the West Virginia senator would be the youngest candidate. Biden turns 81 in November, Trump turns 77 next month, and Manchin turns 76 in August.
It is not difficult to see a scenario where Manchin concludes that an independent presidential bid would be much more exciting and fun than a tough Senate reelection bid. And Manchin would likely pick some center-right Republican as his running mate — Collins or Hogan or perhaps Alaska senator Lisa Murkowski. (Manchin endorsed her last year, and she endorsed him.)
When you imagine a three-way race between Biden-Harris, Trump-Lake, and Manchin-Collins/Hogan/Murkowski, it’s no wonder Democrats are worried about No Labels. The entire Biden strategy is based on his being the only realistic option against Trump for the roughly 51 percent of Americans who disapprove of the former president. You can find plenty of Democrats who want an option besides Biden, and plenty of Republicans who want an option besides Trump. Whether that adds up to enough votes to win a state in a three-way race is an open question.