Over at Bloomberg, Leonid Bershidsky writes – at least according to the headline – ”I Saw the Future of Politics at an Evan McMullin Rally” and contends the independent candidate is offering “conservatism for Millennials.”
We know McMullin is in the neighborhood of winning Utah. If, as Bershidsky suggests, McMullin is going to have a shot at Idaho and Wyoming, it would be good to have a poll or two conducted out there. As noted in today’s Morning Jolt, we have almost no polling of the presidential race in Idaho, and most years, that wouldn’t be a big deal. It’s a deep red, heavily-Republican state. But this year, there’s at least an outside chance that the Gem State could be competitive.
McMullin’s appeal isn’t merely religious, but he’s Mormon, and 60 percent of Utah residents are Mormon. About 24 percent of Idaho residents are Mormon, as well. McMullin has made multiple visits to the state, and he’s on the ballot in Idaho. And Donald Trump got only 28 percent in the Idaho GOP presidential primary; Ted Cruz won with a bit more than 45 percent. So it’s at least possible that there are a significant number of anti-Trump Republicans out there.
A poll in early September had Trump ahead, 44 percent to Hillary Clinton’s 25 percent, with Gary Johnson at 19 percent and Jill Stein at 7 percent. McMullin wasn’t even listed as an option. Maybe he’s still in single digits. Or maybe he’s seeing a surge like in Utah.
Could somebody call up a couple hundred likely voters in Utah check?
And while they’re at it, call a couple hundred Wyoming likely voters, too?
UPDATE: Ask, and you shall receive! “A new Emerson College poll finds Donald Trump far ahead of Hillary Clinton in Idaho, 52 percent to 23 percent. Independent Evan McMullin is running a distant third, with 10 percent of the vote, and 9 percent are undecided.”