Our pal David Bahnsen crafts a most worthwhile regular missive offering analysis of markets, politics, and, yes, pandemics — it’s called DC Today (and why you’re not subscribing yet is a mystery). Anyway, yesterday’s filing has a boatload of wisdom about the substantially expanded “disconnect between the population at-large and the media” when it comes to the realities of the coronavirus and its latest Omicron variant. Here’s the chunk:
COVID
- I talked above in the “Markets” section on the disconnect between the market and the media around COVID, something that has been true for over 18 months now. But what is apparent to me with Omicron is that the disconnect between the population at-large and the media has expanded substantially, as well. The public appetite for continued de-normalization is substantially diminished, and changing policies, loosening restrictions, goalpost moving about quarantines, continued massive crowds at big events, and huge push back at the mere [insane] suggestion of closing schools all point to this improved cultural dynamic.
- This is, to me, the heart of the matter for the U.S. regarding omicron (though I would still read all the bullets below): Our cases are 98% of what they were last December, yet deaths were 26% of what they were.
- It strikes me as really noteworthy that the New York Times can post this, and somehow the top numbers are supposed to be more notable to us than the bottom numbers????
- Please note the extraordinary reality of what the New York Times own postings are showing . . . They are not merely showing that deaths are not going up in nearly the same proportion as cases (as was the case with the Delta variant) . . . They are showing that deaths are actually DECLINING with omicron, even as cases are skyrocketing. This is true domestically and even more true globally. That scenario of a whole lot of people getting sick for a day or two (if they have any symptoms at all), but not seeing tragedy befall at any systemic level, thereby adding immunity throughout the society, is playing out entirely. More and more epidemiologists are calling it out that way as well.
- South Africa, where Omicron basically came from, lifted their restrictions and curfews and announced that Omicron has “already receded.” They announced “ample capacity” in their hospital system for any health services and the head of their Medical Research Council declared the omicron wave over (calling it a “flash flood, not a wave”).
- Note from the chart below that cases themselves have already started to collapse, and six weeks after the case escalation began the deaths never did increase. This can no longer be looked at as a “just wait – those deaths are coming!” moment … The deaths never came, and the cases are clearly on their way out.
- The UK released data pointing to substantially lower hospitalizations happening from Omicron. Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, reiterated today that “omicron was clearly milder” and that conditions did not require new restrictions. Scientists from Oxford and government officials confirmed both lower hospitalizations and much shorter hospitalization stays, with virtually no fatalities from the heavily vaccinated population.
- So quarantining is now requested for five days after an asymptomatic positive test versus the prior ten days. Travel restrictions with Africa have been lifted. Schools are (for the most part) not being closed. The amount of virus detected in a positive test to be deemed relevant has finally been re-scored by the NFL and NBA. And former leading mask proponents are now affirming that cloth masks are really not useful at all. It’s been quite a week.
- One of the most important elements in the present discussion is national health leaders (Dr. Anthony Fauci, Dr. Scott Gottlieb, Dr. Monica Gandhi, etc.) – people that some may love and some may hate – all freely admitting that a massive amount of the hospitalizations we do see for COVID right now have nothing to do with COVID (i.e. “incidental” hospitalizations where one is at the hospital for an unrelated situation and happens to test positive). My research indicates this has been some numerical factor since mid-2020 but I admit it was not as big of a factor as some anecdotal evidence at first suggested. However, a barrage of medical experts are now saying their COVID “hospitalizations” now are not COVID related – from 50-70% in some cases. The telling number is ICU stays, which flat out have not gone up, period. ICUs and Hospitalizations had a strong correlation a year ago – that has fallen apart now. This is overwhelming support for the case so many are making about omicron.
