From Neal B. Freeman over on the home page:
The bottom line on the election is that, despite polls showing him highly competitive in a three-way race, we’re not likely to be greeting a new Senator Crist (Me, Fla.) this November. The historical record is reassuring on this point. The last third-party winner in Florida was “the Cracker Messiah,” Sidney Catts, elected governor on an anti-booze platform in 1916. (The electorate soon recovered its senses.) More recent history argues a similar conclusion. Florida’s only other widely popular political figure, former governor Jeb Bush, is now all in for Rubio after observing a decorous distance from the Senate campaign for the past year. Crist’s repudiation of the GOP is a repudiation of his predecessor as well, and Bush is reliably reported to be ready to rumble. So, while it’s self-evidently true that “things change,” as Crist explains his bizarre wanderings, his independent campaign looks like a loser. It may even have peaked today. But can he damage Rubio’s chances and improve Meek’s? Absolutely.
Make sure to read the rest here.