# Crunching The .3 Doctrine

From a reader:

Jonah,

You probably have a lot of others e-mailing as well to point this out, but while that 0.3% seems like a small probability it is wholly implausible. Just as a point of comparison given what I’ve seen on the departure screens at every airport I’ve been in, there has to be at least 1000 or more domestic airline flights every single day – probably many times that number. If the probability of an accident were 0.3% that would translate into an expected 3 crashes every single day (0.003*1000)! So are we to believe that the probability of an aircraft accident is many orders of magnitude smaller than the probability of an asteroid destroying all life on the planet? Preposterous!

If you click through to the original story, you can see the trick they used to sensationalize this. The 99.7% probability applies to the asteroid passing the earth in a particular range of distances – say 10,000 miles to 30,000 miles. There must be a decidedly non-trivial probability of it passing by at an even greater distance (> 30,000 miles). I am positive that adding the 99.7% probability to the probability of it passing even further off gives something like 99.999999999999999999%. And even at that, I bet I’m short a whole lot of nines.

Update: Math Fight! From a reader:

Now I’m SURE you’re going to get a lot of e-mails.

Your latest post referring to the probability of plane crashes is comparing apples and oranges, and shows that the e-mailer is not clear on his use of probabilities (Derb can probably chime in much more eloquently than I can).

I believe the 99.7% was the probabiliy of the asteroid thing happening once within a particular time period. Your e-mailer applies that same probability to each individiual plane each day. WRONG! Probabilities are calculated much differently than that. Go ask Derb for help!!!

Update II: More number crunching here.

## CNN News Writer Denies the Biological Reality of Sex at Birth

To pretend that we as a society are incapable of knowing whether a child is a male or female at birth is lunacy.

## Powerful Evidence That George Floyd Resisted Arrest

The Derek Chauvin case is more complicated than prosecutors would have it.

## Chauvin Defense Expert Destroyed on the Stand

The prosecution blew the witness’s testimony to bits.

## Why Not Fewer Voters?

The fact is that voters got us into this mess. Maybe the answer isn’t more voters.

## Never Ask a Question You Don’t Need to Ask: Chauvin Lawyer Gets Clobbered by Witness’s Gripping Testimony

There’s rarely an upside in asking pointed questions to a young, nervous, highly sympathetic witness.

## The Great California Exodus

A look at why droves are leaving the state.

## Rand Paul: Biden Should ‘Burn His Mask’ on TV to Encourage Americans to Get Vaccinated

Paul went on to blast White House chief medical adviser Dr. Anthony Fauci for his continued guidance that Americans should wear masks.

## 911 Caller Told Cops Columbus Teen Was 'Trying to Stab' Her Before Fatal Shooting

The shooting came on the same day a jury convicted Minneapolis police officer Derek Chauvin in the killing of George Floyd.

## No, Modern Policing Did Not Originate with Slavery

Nikole Hannah-Jones’s latest provocation is, once again, rooted in historical confusion.

## LeBron James Deletes Tweet Calling for Prosecution of Columbus Cop Who Shot Knife-Wielding Teen

In a Wednesday afternoon tweet that was later deleted, the basketball star posted a photo of the officer.

## Senate Democrats Dodge on Packing the Supreme Court

Most Democratic senators refuse to take the idea off the table.

## There Are No Issues on Which China Can Be Considered an Ally

Failing to reckon with the Chinese regime’s true authoritarian character means the Biden administration is empowering it.